In 2024, a growing number of wealthy Americans took the drastic step of giving up their U.S. citizenship, with 4,820 individuals formally renouncing—a 48% jump from 2023 and the third-highest annual total on record. The surge reflects deepening concerns over political, economic, and tax-related uncertainties, as well as increasing interest in long-term financial planning abroad.
The most striking data came from the third quarter of 2024, which saw 2,123 renunciations, accounting for 44% of the year’s total and marking the highest quarterly figure since late 2016. This dramatic spike, however, reflects decisions made over a year earlier.
Time Lag Skews Real-Time Picture
According to David Lesperance, founder of international tax and immigration firm Lesperance & Associates, the figures published by the IRS often trail the actual expatriation date by 12 to 18 months. “Some delays are even longer,” he explains, especially when expatriates trigger legal extensions for filing their final U.S. tax returns. That means most of the 2024 data reflects choices made in 2023, well before many recent political developments.
Despite quarterly fluctuations, the long-term trend is clear: renunciations are steadily rising. The five-year moving average has climbed from 2,663 in 2020 to 2,856 in 2024, with the five-year total reaching 21,027—about 39% of all expatriations since the IRS began reporting in 1996.
Administrative Bottlenecks Distort the Data
Lesperance cautions against reading too much into quarterly changes, noting that fluctuations often result from delays and backlogs at U.S. embassies and consulates. The first quarter of 2024, for example, recorded only 345 names—the lowest since late 2021—before jumping to 1,717 in Q2 and 2,123 in Q3. These surges, he says, often reflect newly opened appointment slots rather than real-time increases in demand.
“For undisclosed reasons, the State Department strictly limits renunciation appointments,” Lesperance said. He likens the process to a game of “whack-a-mole,” with locations quickly overwhelmed by demand and forced to maintain long waiting lists. His firm estimates that the global backlog for renunciation appointments now exceeds 30,000 cases.
Who’s on the List—and Who Isn’t
The IRS’s quarterly “Expatriation List” includes only so-called “covered expatriates”—those with a net worth over $2 million or who paid more than $178,000 annually in taxes over the past five years. “It only captures the wealthy,” Lesperance notes. “Those with fewer assets are not listed, even if they’ve officially renounced.”
That means the real number of Americans giving up their citizenship could be significantly higher than reported.
Political and Economic Factors Drive the Exodus
The rise in expatriations reflects broader anxieties among high-net-worth Americans, long-term residents, and even Green Card holders. Lesperance says many are putting “backup plans” in place due to mounting uncertainty around the U.S. political, tax, and social landscape.
He also notes that surges in renunciation activity often follow major political events. For example, the record number of expatriations reported in 2020—6,705—actually stemmed from applications filed in 2018 and early 2019, during the buildup to the midterm elections.
A Canary in the Coal Mine
Lesperance views the expatriation data as a valuable early warning indicator. “The list can be seen as a ‘canary in the coal mine’ that helps us answer whether wealthy Americans will overcome ‘life inertia’ and permanently leave the U.S. tax system,” he said.
Given that the top 1% of U.S. taxpayers contribute 40% of total annual personal tax revenue, this trend could have broader fiscal implications. While the actual numbers are relatively small compared to the overall population, the financial impact could be significant if the trend accelerates.
